Two September freight readings offer evidence of improvement without describing the same recovery. The American Trucking Associations reported a 0.8% seasonally adjusted monthly increase in for-hire truck tonnage on October 20. Cass Information Systems reported a 1.4% seasonally adjusted increase in its shipment index for September. FreightNews’s analysis is that the useful question for a carrier is which activity resembles its own business: weight hauled, shipments handled or the price collected for moving them.
ATA’s preliminary adjusted tonnage index reached 114, with 2015 equal to 100, against a revised 113.1 in August. September matched its year-earlier level; the year-to-date gain was 0.9%. ATA said third-quarter tonnage nevertheless declined from both the preceding quarter and a year earlier. The monthly improvement therefore does not erase the weaker quarter. Its membership survey is dominated by contract freight, which limits its use as a direct reading of today’s spot market.
Adjustment also changes the monthly comparison. ATA’s unadjusted index fell 1.4% from August to 114.8, while the adjusted series rose. These are separate views of the same reporting program, rather than a reason to choose whichever headline fits a rate negotiation. Use the adjusted comparison to discuss movement beyond normal seasonal patterns and preserve the unadjusted label when discussing the raw monthly change. The advance estimates remain subject to revision.
Cass counts shipments across North American domestic freight modes, rather than tons hauled by ATA’s trucking respondents. Its methodology puts truckload at about 33% of shipment counts and less-than-truckload at about 40%. Cass also assigns activity to the month in which it processes the invoice, which need not be the shipment’s actual travel month. These differences mean that a larger percentage gain in Cass cannot establish that the average truck shipment became lighter: the two programs do not share the same shipment population or timing.
The Cass September table shows shipments up 1.9% from a year earlier, while expenditures rose 20.4%. Dividing the expenditure growth factor, 1.204, by the shipment growth factor, 1.019, gives an approximately 18.2% increase in spending per indexed shipment, a FreightNews calculation. That is a mixed-mode spending comparison. It leaves fuel, service and shipment composition inside the result; it is not an estimate of a dry-van carrier’s linehaul rate increase or profit margin.
Cass’s separate truckload linehaul index supplies a narrower price check: it rose 10.1% year over year and 0.6% from August. Its published definition covers U.S. dry-van truckload pricing per mile, combines contract and spot invoices, and removes fuel and accessorial charges. Consequently, the difference between the 18.2% spending-per-shipment calculation and 10.1% linehaul growth cannot be labeled a fuel surcharge. The measures differ in modes, units and other components; subtracting them would not isolate a single cost.
For a fleet’s own September review, FreightNews recommends keeping four comparisons separate: completed loads, hauled weight, linehaul revenue per loaded mile and fuel-plus-accessorial revenue. Match customer, equipment and lane where practical, and state whether the comparison uses travel dates or invoice dates. A carrier handling more small consignments can face different dock work from one hauling heavier loads, even when their revenue totals rise similarly. That is an illustrative planning distinction, not a finding about September’s national shipment mix.
The national reports support a more constructive monthly demand discussion, with meaningful limits. They do not establish a universal capacity shortage, a lane-specific rate floor or an October volume commitment. Before reserving another truck or accepting a price reset, compare the relevant public measure with confirmed customer releases, accepted loads and the fleet’s own unit costs. Keep September’s improvement in view without making different denominators tell a single story.