August’s rise in U.S. nondurable-goods shipments was concentrated in petroleum and coal products. In its full manufacturing report released October 2, the Census Bureau estimates seasonally adjusted nondurable shipments of $325.033 billion, up $896 million from revised July. Petroleum and coal products rose $943 million to $70.689 billion. That category supplied more than the entire net increase, with other nondurable industries together offsetting a small part of the gain.
Subtracting petroleum and coal products from the nondurable total gives $254.344 billion for August and $254.391 billion for July, a FreightNews calculation from Table 1’s rounded dollar estimates. The $47 million decline is less than 0.02%, effectively flat. This aggregate does not describe every customer alike: food-product shipments slipped 0.2%, beverage and tobacco products declined 0.5%, chemical products rose 0.2%, and plastics and rubber products were virtually unchanged.
Petroleum refineries accounted for $779 million of the petroleum-and-coal category’s $943 million gain. Refinery shipments increased 1.2% to $65.885 billion. The wider category is not a diesel-only series, and all these figures measure dollar value rather than gallons, barrels or tonnage. Census adjusts for seasonal patterns but not changes in prices. The report consequently cannot establish whether additional product volume, higher prices or a different product mix produced the increase.
That distinction matters to both sides of a fleet’s petroleum exposure. Fuel procurement teams need actual quoted delivered prices and supply commitments; tank carriers need confirmed product movements, origins and delivery windows. A rise in refinery shipment dollars does not itself establish a higher retail diesel price or more tanker loads. This analysis addresses the concentration of manufacturing shipment value, a different question from FreightNews’s recent report on physical distillate stocks and regional refinery inputs.
The manufacturing total offers limited support for a broad freight expansion. All factory shipments were virtually unchanged at $658.622 billion, as the nondurable gain roughly offset the revised 0.3% decline in durable-goods shipments. Census’s earlier advance report had put that durable decline at 0.2%; use the full report’s revised comparison for current analysis. The M3 survey is based on a reporting panel rather than a probability sample, and Census says its sampling error and statistical significance cannot be measured.
FreightNews infers that industrial sales and capacity reviews should separate petroleum accounts from food, packaging, chemicals and other nondurable customers before attributing August’s aggregate increase to the whole book of business. Compare the carrier’s physical shipment counts, weight or product volume, equipment needs and accepted orders within each group. The national dollars locate the concentration; the customer’s confirmed freight shows whether that concentration has become work a fleet can serve.