U.S. rail traffic appeared to jump 13.8% in the latest annual comparison, but the calendar carried much of the headline. The Association of American Railroads counted 533,545 carloads and intermodal units in the week ending September 5, 2026, versus 467,880 in the comparable 2025 week.
Those weeks did not occupy the same place around Labor Day. The 2025 comparison week ended September 6 and included the Monday, September 1 holiday. The 2026 reporting week ended two days before Labor Day on September 7. One total therefore contains a holiday operating day while the other is a full pre-holiday week.
The sequential comparison points the other way. AAR reported 543,212 U.S. carloads and intermodal units for the week ending August 29. FreightNews calculates that the September 5 total was 1.8% lower, with carloads down 2.3% and intermodal units down 1.3% from the preceding week. Those are unadjusted week-to-week calculations, not proof of a new downturn.
The broader 2026 record is firmer without matching the one-week spike. Through 35 weeks, AAR reported combined U.S. traffic up 3.6% from the comparable 2025 period. Carloads were up 2.8% and intermodal units were up 4.2%. That cumulative view absorbs more operating days and makes a better backdrop than the isolated 13.8% holiday comparison.
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Nine of ten carload commodity groups were above their year-earlier weekly totals. Metallic ores and metals, grain, and chemicals posted the largest absolute gains cited by AAR, while coal declined. The mix is still useful, but each year-over-year percentage inherits the same holiday-placement problem and should not be read as a clean demand acceleration by itself.
FreightNews infers that intermodal customers and drayage operators should manage the actual handoff clock rather than the headline percentage. Confirm terminal gates, train cutoffs, free-time rules, chassis availability, pickup appointments and customer receiving hours across the September 7 holiday. A national weekly gain cannot tell a shipper whether one box will clear a specific ramp before charges begin.
The next releases may swing again as the holiday moves into the 2026 count and out of the comparison position. Analysts should use several weeks, match holiday-relative periods where possible and retain the raw totals beside percentage changes. The latest report supports continued year-to-date growth; it does not support calling one calendar-distorted week a 13.8% expansion in underlying rail demand.