The Energy Information Administration's September outlook moved the diesel budget higher after the current pump-price surge. EIA now forecasts U.S. retail diesel to average $5.55 per gallon in the fourth quarter of 2026, up 69 cents from the $4.86 forecast it published in August. The change is a forward estimate, not a new surcharge index or a guaranteed price at any fuel island.

The expected decline is slower than the prior forecast. EIA's quarterly path moves from $5.55 in the final quarter of 2026 to $4.93, $4.50, $4.17 and $4.02 across the four quarters of 2027. Its annual averages are $5.07 for 2026 and $4.40 for 2027, 22 cents and 33 cents above the corresponding August forecast. Those national values include taxes and cannot replace a fleet's net purchase price by location.

The outlook also occupies a different time window from the weekly benchmark used in many fuel-surcharge agreements. EIA's latest published U.S. on-highway diesel observation is $5.967 for September 7; the next weekly update is scheduled for September 15. The forecast was completed September 3 and EIA says it does not specifically account for market events after that date.

Physical supply is the core reason the forecast remains elevated. EIA expects U.S. distillate inventories to fall below 100 million barrels in September and remain below the 2021-2025 seasonal low through the end of 2026 and most of 2027. The agency says net exports of distillate have been above or near their five-year high in every month since February as tight global prices encourage U.S. barrels to move overseas.

The calendar adds another constraint. EIA expects fall refinery maintenance to reduce domestic distillate production while harvest-season agricultural use increases consumption. That combination does not establish a shortage at every terminal, but it leaves less national inventory available to absorb a refinery, pipeline or regional distribution interruption without a price response.

Refining margin is carrying more of the forecast than crude oil alone. EIA estimates average U.S. diesel crack spreads will exceed $2 per gallon from August through November before declining steadily through mid-2027. Its current corrected overview table puts the annual distillate crack spread at $1.57 in 2026 and $1.25 in 2027, versus $1.30 and $0.97 in the August outlook. EIA posted a notice because the original September overview table had mistakenly displayed gasoline-crack-spread figures; the corrected diesel figures are the ones used here.

For a scale check, a 69-cent change applied to 100,000 gallons would add $69,000 to a fourth-quarter gross fuel budget. That is FreightNews arithmetic, not an estimate of any carrier's bill. Actual exposure depends on gallons purchased in the quarter, regional and retail spreads, fleet-card discounts, bulk contracts, fuel efficiency, empty miles and the portion recovered under customer agreements.

FreightNews infers that one fuel assumption is no longer enough for fall bids. A carrier can keep EIA's $5.55 fourth-quarter forecast as a national base case, then model a higher case for prolonged supply constraints and a lower case for faster normalization. The operating model should keep purchase cost separate from billed recovery so a forecast decline does not hide a cash-timing gap created by weekly, monthly or capped surcharge resets.

The forecast's biggest stated hinge is international supply. EIA assumes tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz moves toward normal and that Middle Eastern and East Asian refineries increase distillate availability; it says longer constraints would imply higher crack spreads than the current forecast. Fleet pricing teams should therefore watch the weekly EIA retail benchmark, national and regional inventory, contract reset dates and actual terminal prices, and revise scenarios when those inputs move rather than treating a 2027 annual average as a promise of when relief arrives.