August’s national freight decline reached beyond a single mode. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics reported October 14 that trucking, rail carloads, rail intermodal and waterborne activity all decreased, while air freight and pipelines increased. The combined Freight Transportation Services Index reached its lowest level since September 2021. For carriers approaching a contract renewal, that breadth makes the expected volume behind a proposed rate an especially important negotiating question.
The seasonally adjusted index stood at 134.4 in August, down 0.4% from July and 3.0% from a year earlier. This was the second consecutive monthly decline. Those are national for-hire freight results, rather than a report of September or October bookings. They establish a weaker completed-month backdrop for the market, without measuring the tenders arriving at a carrier this morning.
The accompanying BTS history places March at 139.4, June at 136.6 and July at 134.9. FreightNews calculates that August was about 3.6% below March and 1.6% below June, using the published rounded index levels. It also sat below every observation in the agency’s August 2023–August 2026 table. The new evidence is a lower floor with several major surface modes declining together, rather than merely another negative monthly headline.
That combination matters when interpreting competition between truck and rail. A decline in both trucking and intermodal does not, by itself, establish that freight switched from one to the other. Nor does the combined index reveal which shipper, commodity or corridor lost business. FreightNews infers that a carrier should ask whether a customer’s renewal volume reflects continuing orders or an earlier forecast that has not yet been reduced.
A useful commercial comparison starts with the loads actually awarded and moved under the expiring agreement. Put those beside the customer’s proposed weekly commitment and identify the difference between a guaranteed minimum and a planning estimate. A rate concession based on a larger expected book can have different economics if the volume never arrives. The public data provide a reason to test that assumption; they do not supply the contract’s answer.
Equipment dedicated to an account also changes the calculation. When the carrier reserves tractors, trailers or driver availability, a missing load can leave costs behind even though no shipment is billed. A renewal review can therefore price the commitment and the transportation separately, using the actual agreement’s terms and the carrier’s own costs. This is an operating inference from the broader decline, not a BTS recommendation or evidence that every dedicated account is weakening.
The immediate takeaway is to resolve the volume promise before treating a quoted rate as the whole bargain. Ask which orders support the proposed schedule, how cancellations will be communicated and what happens to reserved capacity when demand falls short. August’s five-year low strengthens the case for those questions. A customer with firm shipments and reliable equipment turns may still support attractive business in a softer national market.